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Mr. Bisno gave me the probable bedroom counts for his project. This bedroom count might have a great significance toward finding a believable number of vehicles for homeowners and their families.
Percentages and numbers of bedrooms inside Senior Housing units.
30% of senior housing may consist of studio and 1-bedroom units.
30% of 575 equals 172.5. So about 173 studio and 1-bedroom units may be built.
60% of the 575 senior-designated units will be 2-bedroom units.
60% of 575 equals 345 2-bedroom units.
In this configuration, there may be 690 bedrooms in these floor plans.
The remaining 10% of senior-designated housing will have 3-bedrooms each.
10% of 575 is 57.5 or perhaps 57 3-bedroom units.
57 3-bedroom units will provide 171 bedrooms in this category.
Adding the estimated number of bedrooms within the age-restricted area of Ponte Vista, my calculator produces the sum of 1034 bedrooms for the 575 designated senior housing units.
Percentages of categories within the non-age restricted area.
These formulas again are for a 2,300 home development where 1,725 homes are non-age restricted.
Mr. Bisno wrote that "15-17%" of homes would be lofts, studios, or one-bedroom units.
for the purposes of this posting only, I will average the percentage to 16% which made my calculations much easier for me.
Approximately 16% of the homes will have either no "bedrooms" or have just one bedroom.
16% of 1,725 equals 276. The total number of "bedrooms" in this category is 276.
Approximately 44% of the homes are slated to have 2 bedrooms each.
44% of 1,725 equals 759.
The 759, two bedroom homes would provide 1,518 bedrooms in this configuration.
30% of the non-age restricted homes are projected by Mr. Bisno to have three bedrooms each.
30% of 1,725 equals 517.5
Because I don't think Mr. Bisno would build 1/2 of a unit, I am going to round up the number of three-bedroom units to 518. Further down you will see why I have done this.
518 units, each having three bedrooms allows for a total of 1,554 bedrooms within the three bedroom category.
10% of the 1,725 units, according to Mr. Bisno will be four-bedroom units.
10% of 1,725 equals 172.5
Because I used the number "518" for the three bedroom units, I will round the number of these types of homes to just 172.
172 four bedrooms will provide 688 total bedrooms in these homes.
Totaling up the following proposed numbers of bedrooms within the non-age restricted portion of Ponte Vista looks like this;
276+1,518+1,554+688=4,036 bedrooms in the non-age restricted area of Ponte Vista.
With the senior housing component allowing for 1,034 bedrooms and the non-age restricted area contributing 4,036 bedrooms, I finally have a number of bedrooms I can then begin estimating a more realistic possible population of Ponte Vista.
2,300 homes in Ponte Vista would provide an added 5,070 bedrooms to the community.
The DEIR estimates that each senior unit may have 1.5 persons per unit. It also shows that the average number of residents per unit in the non-age restricted area is 2.0
1.5 times 575 equals 862.5
2.0 times 1,725 equals 3450
This is where the estimated projected population of 4,313 comes from
Using the DEIR's population estimation and Mr. Bisno's revelation about the proposed number of bedrooms suggests that 4,313 people will live in a development of 5,070 bedrooms.
I highly doubt that each bedroom will be slept in by only one person. I also cringe at the thought of 757 bedrooms having nobody, other than perhaps quests will sleep in them.
If Mr. Bisno's written estimation of the number of bedrooms is actually built, then the projected population of Ponte Vista is way off the mark, in my opinion.
And another thing.....
The DEIR allows for 2.5 parking spaces per residence, or 5,750 spaces.
It is not logical, again in my opinion, to allow only 5,750 spaces for a population that could fill 5,070 bedrooms, even with one person sleeping in one bed in each and every bedroom.
I will try to gather data on the number of folks who live in condominiums and town homes, and the average population numbers for numbers of bedrooms within these types of homes.
Any help here by you would be greatly appreciated.
7 comments:
Richards,
I think there will actually be quite a few bedrooms that will be unoccupied or used as offices, etc. I would also expect the ratio of kids to adults in Ponte Vista to be lower than the average in other residential neighborhoods given the lack of detached homes.
Regarding the senior housing, I think the majority of people will be living alone with more than 3 people in a household an extreme rarity. This is what I've seen personally with my Grandma's senior community in OC.
Maybe the actual number is actually somewhere between the two you've presented, but I have to side with Bisno and the DEIR on this one.
Mark,
I'm sorry, but I have to agree with kris. You are making all sorts of assumptions with no basis in fact. Perhaps if you cited some Census Bureau studies or even local state and city planning studies it would be more palatable.
I can tell you from personal experience that I sleep in one bedroom, while one is an office and the other is a guest room.
Be careful how much you assume and where you let the numbers take you.
the same could be said of bisno's economics guy, who claims 101.5 million will be spent within a five mile radius.
To their credit, Gordon and Jack both raised this line of questioning. Namely, that in a 2,300 unit complex, 101.5 million per year within a 5 mile radius means each unit would have to spend roughly 44,130. i don't know anybody that spends 44,130 on an annual basis within a 5 mile radius. the analyst said that figure included household goods like food, gas, and other sundries. i find that number highly disingenuous, almost to the point of being insulting.
one thing i noticed is that no one discusses what is going to happen to the land owned by VOA. does anyone know?
Thanks Kris, tom and Anonymous 5:12
After I got home from work today I actually looked up the ratio of residents per unit in the two community plan sites, the County of Los Angeles, and the State of California. So yes, tom you are correct that sustantiated facts should be reported instead of assumptions.
Like you too, tom, I live in a three bedroom home. My wife and I still share one bedroom, our computers share the "office" bedroom, and we have a guest bedroom. This configuration was not the same as when I first moved into the house in 1955. Then it was a two-bedroom home with my sister in one bedroom and my parents and I were in the other bedroom. I, of course was brought home at the age of one-day old and I didn't move into the room I shared with my sister for over 8 years until I was about 6-months old, according to my mother.
I am going to post the statistics I learned earlier on a new post instead of in these comments.
Anonymous, I have read some of the appendices for the economic and population impact and the only thing I can figure out is that the information provided is used in DEIR preparation and might not be actually relevant in the real world. Case in point, a new post will document actual census numbers for population/unit ratios and the figures do not come close to the published numbers of population/unit ratios calculated to be in Ponte Vista.
It seems that there may be an industry of preparing studies based on methodology specific to Impact Reports and other development documents.
I think the actual economic impact predictions can be made simply by looking at actual spending patterns by people in the community where a development is purposed. Both Albertson's and Ralph's have "club cards" where users' spending is recorded and analysised. Mastercard and Visa have records of actual spending by individuals in particular areas and what items were actually bought.
I can't imagine that it would be hard for a trained statistician to work with supplied statistics from organizations willing to sell such information, so that an accurate spending pattern can be established for a neighborhood, city, county, state, or even a nation.
I hold little faith in the statistics generated by the DEIR not because they came from a document paid for by Mr. Bisno, but rather because I feel that the statistics have shown that they do not connect with actual real-world facts. I know the authors of these studies are steadfast in there beliefs in their accuracy, but I contend that a different methodology of acquiring data would lead to different results.
I can only use the data I learned and calculated out, based on my conversation with Mr. Bisno, to be able to formulate possible figures as to the real projected population of Ponte Vista. In my conversations with Mr. Bisno, I completely trust that what he told me are facts that are true, believable, and much more valuable than the statistics purported to be true in the DEIR.
I will go with believing in what Mr. Bisno told me rather than the authors of the DEIR.
Howdy Anonymous 5:43,
Your question about the remaining VOA land is the source of rumors and speculation. Unfortunately, I don't know either what may happen to that land.
You may have heard the rumor that it may be bought by L.A.U.S.D. to build the high school right next to Rolling Hills Prep and have the sports fields down the hill on Gaffey where the softball diamonds now sit. This is not in L.A.U.S.D.'s plan.
Howdy to "tom",
If your last name begins with a "P" then I knew of you many years ago. I saw you at the November 9 meeting, but I didn't see you at the November 30 meeting.
Be well,
MW
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