Monday, November 10, 2008

Ponte Vista By The Numbers, A Refresher

About two years ago I published a fact sheet concerning Ponte Vista at San Pedro.

I am going to reprint it and add some new calculations based on the revised number of units, at the site.

Most of the numbers I used had be come from the Draft Environmental Impact Report and from its Project Financial Analysis that was published in September, 2006.

I tried to provide new calculations based on the fewer number of units now part of the application. There are questions I have added that you may wish to answer in your own mind.

We are all now very much into the final determination processes concerning the Project. In less than 9 days we will have the chance to provide comments about Ponte Vista at the Harbor Area Planning Commission meeting on November 18.

I know there are so many people who have opinions about what should be built on the 61.53 acre site. There may be others who are concerned about some of the financials of the Project.

Unfortunately, I had to use the $712,500.00 average price for a unit at Ponte Vista because it is the only figure I can find that is illustrated in a document sent to a governmental entity. There has been some talk around that the average sale price for a unit may actually be lower, but I haven't seen any formal illustration of that. I would be happy to provide calculations based on a lower average sale price for units if those figures came from a document that also is part of a document that may have legal status, like a FEIR, new application, or some other form.

Ponte Vista by the numbers

The U.S. Navy ended the auction for 41.95 acres if Ponte Vista land on March 7, 2005. The winning bid of $88,000,000.00 was placed by Mr. Bob Bisno and the Bisno Development Corporation.

An additional 19.58 acres within the Ponte Vista area was conveyed to a homeless advocacy group ( Volunteers of America) using a “Housing Assistance Conveyance” from an act that became law in 1994.

Mr. Bisno purchased the 19.58 acres of land for $34,000,000.00.

Breakdown of acreage and cost:

41.95 acres at $88,000,000.00 equals $2,097,753.40 (approx) per acre.
19.58 acres at $34,000,000.00 equals $1,736,465.78 (approx) per acre

61.53 total acres for $122,000,000.00 equals $1,982,772.63 (approx)
Per acre.

61.53 acres equals 0.09614 Square Miles. (Source:

7,343 permanent residents (Source: Ponte Vista Scoping Comments)

Population Density is a ratio of the number of residents within a given area. The U.S. Census figures density as persons per square mile.

7,343/0.09614 equals 76,378.198 persons per square mile.

2,300 housing units within 61.53 acres is equivalent to 23,923.44 units per
square mile. (P.S.M.)

1,950 housing units within 61.53 acres is equivalent to 20,282.92 units per square mile.

Population densities based on 2000 U.S. Census.

State of New York 402 P.S.M.
New York City (all boroughs combined) 26,403 P.S.M.
Manhattan Island and the Borough of Manhattan 66,940 P.S.M.

Here is some information derived from the DEIR, Appendix IV, F1 Project Fiscal Impact, September, 2006.

The Construction costs are estimated to be approximately $817 Million dollars, (2005 $) for 2,300-units. This is not counting the purchase price for the site which was $122 Million Dollars.

Within the same document, the average price for a unit at Ponte Vista, using 2,300 total units was estimated to be $712,500 (2005 $).

$817 Million/2,300 units may be equivalent to $692.7 Million/1,950 units

DEIR Appendix IV, F1 Fiscal Impacts

D. Economic Impacts of the Completed Project

The economic impacts of the Project once it is completed were also derived from the IMPLAN model. First, the total income from all Project Households was estimated (i.e., $334 million in 2005 $), based on assumptions about mortgage payments on homes at the Project (i.e., $712,500 average sale price), plus all other related housing costs (e.g., real estate taxes, property insurance and Homeowners Association Dues. (This is the source documentation for the average sale price of units at Ponte Vista.)

$712,500 X 2,300 Units equals $1,638,750,000

$712,500 X 1,950 Units equals $1,389,375,000

$817 Million Dollars plus $122 Million Dollars equals $939 Million Dollars.

If Bob’s costs are about $939 Million Dollars versus an estimated income of
$1.389375 Billion Dollars, here is what the difference between income and expense would be:

$1,389,375,000 minus $939,000,000 equals $450,375,000

How much of the approximate difference will Bob have to pay in interest? If the interest is already calculated in the overall costs of the Project, do you think a profit of about $450 Million Dollars is a good thing?

How much profit do you think is fair? Do you feel that OUR community will be ‘paying’ for much of the profit Bob may be getting?

What if Bob sells his entitlements BEFORE he actually spends much of the $817 Million Dollars of construction costs?

The last time I looked at Property Tax rates in that area of San Pedro, the rate was 1.179045.
If new buyers cannot take their Prop 13 benefit from their old home to a new unit at Ponte Vista, the property taxes may be calculated based on the purchase price of the unit.

If someone paid about $467,000 for a unit at Ponte Vista, might their Property Taxes for the year be about $5,506 for the year.

City Place in Santa Ana is currently the largest project Bob has attempted that included many residential units. Currently the monthly Homeowners Association Dues at that location range from $160 to $220 per month. I have never had to pay Association dues so I don't know if those rates are high, low, or just about right.

When I was working for Pacific Bell, I did work in condos along Wilshire which had about $2,000 per month dues and fees, but I believe that is very high compared to most condo projects.

I hope both supporters and opponents of Bob's current plans can use the information within this post to help them with their comments.

If folks want a Senior unit and can easily afford to move into Ponte Vista, perhaps this post has helped them think about the costs, fees, and how much they can afford.

For opponents of Bob's current plans, you may wish to use some of the profit issues in this post.

Probably no one will change their opinion about Ponte Vista because of this post, but you may learn something you didn't already know and knowledge is power.

No comments: