Friday, July 27, 2007

The Housing Slump and Ponte Vista

I have enjoyed reading all the comments from folks about the current housing slump and all the related issues dealing with mortgage failures and building problems.

I think I need to echo something that Bob has stated and something we probably should think about.

There are cycles to the housing market. There are booms and there are slumps. It seems we are beginning a true slump and it will probably get very, very bad before it gets any better.

Not only are we watching the Centre Street Lofts offering two years of not HOA dues or fees if a unit is purchased there, we are also seeing the senior development on the corner of Arlington and Sepulveda in Torrance not selling out like hotcakes. No more can supporters of Ponte Vista state that they will have to move as far away as Hemet or Riverside to find available senior housing because the senior housing nearby in Torrance is not selling out.

In Miami, according to Bloomberg news, condos are currently being offered for sale discounted 30% from their original price, but still there is more condo development under construction, in Miami.

Anyway, we all must realize that the first new unit of any kind at Ponte Vista will be built years from now, in all likelihood. I think Mr. Bisno would agree on this and want you to know that fact.

If he changes his current plans from seeking specific plan zoning to other types of zoning, time will also be added to that process.

Mr. Bisno probably doesn't want you to know that OUR community is prepared to put up one hell of a fight to keep a project like the one he is currently proposing, out of northwest San Pedro.

I would like you to know that we need to all be less emotional and more thoughtful about these matters. The housing slump will probably last until our new President helps to ease the problems we are currently seeing. It may even take five years to get housing back up and running smoothly. Does anyone other than folks supporting Mr. Bisno's plans have a problem with that, as far as Ponte Vista goes.

In a down market, I think folks in the real estate industry won't want to see a flood of new housing coming onto the market when they are trying so hard to marked the current housing. I think these local folks in that industry will want to keep Ponte Vista, and its own marketing folks, out of the market for as long as possible, but that is just my opinion.

Bob may be able to sit on the property until he sees the housing slump going away or there are new folks in government who support "weapons of mass development".

Bob may wish to sell pieces of the property he owns. The only trouble with that is now that there truly is a movement in OUR community, also supported by other movements and organizations in the greater L.A. area, we have created an environment where if someone tries to come in and build what OUR community feels is inappropriate for that area, they will be more than encouraged to pass up on buying any of Mr. Bisno's property.

Let's all watch what Bob does in the coming weeks and months. We should look for a developer who is now finding it a much tougher road to get this project under construction. The housing slump now probably won't affect his plans in the long run unless his financial backers find his position to be too questionable with their money.

The housing slump may slow Bob down a bit, but please don't take any position that would give up any of your critical review of his plans, I think.


Anonymous said...

yes, real estate has it's ups and downs, but, this is a real DOWN which has no sign of letting up. what about the next down with a glut of bob-o's units on the local market? who's going to buy them,and/or live in them? florida of the future is looking us in the face. damn straight, this just a bump in the road for him. he's not going anywhere and will to show his ignorance.

Jim said...

I don't think Bob can or will hang onto property for a long time without building on it. 122 million dollars is a lot of money to tie up, reguardless of whose money it is.

Thanks for all your effort you put into this Blog. The almost daily dose of information is very, very helpful in the fight against "The Developer" and his suporters who see nothing wrong with ruining a community.